Top Prospect – Gordon Beckham

It is safe to say no player has earned more buzz that Gordon Beckham this year. The premier college middle infielder in this draft is shooting up draft boards. Here is the breakdown.

Career:

Freshman year: – Freshman All- American while playing in all 70 games at SS – hit .280 with 12 HR

Sophomore year: Hit 13 HR overall, while hitting .322 in SEC play

Cape Cod League: tied for league lead with 9 HR

Junior year: Up at the top of the list this year for college baseball’s best player. He has slowed down a bit, no doubt to being pitched around and seeing increased offspeed stuff.

Size/Projection:

Beckham is not the biggest of players, UGA has him listed at 6′0, 180. However, he is muscular and ripped. Wiry strong I would say. He could play at 6′0, 200 pounds without losing speed and mobility.

Beckham is just an all around solid prospect – nothing is great, but nothing is below average either.
Beckam is going to have to realize he is not a power hitter and change his approach and add some conact ability to his game. As mentioned earlier, he is a bit of a free swinger. To his defense, he IS that UGA lineup. He is hitting third and his team is depending on him to be their main power source.
With that said, he can hit for power (20 – 25 HR). However, at what cost? Is he going to hit .250 while doing it?
Either way, he projects to be an offensive 2B or SS. Playing 2B could move him into the all star level.

Swing/ Approach:

Despite the outstanding numbers and career, Beckham is not without flaws. Hitting, his swing is not picture peferct by any means. His bat is perpendicular with the ground (which makes his swing long, but gives him more bat speed). His high leg kick also gives him more power but leaves him a little off balance and he has a “funky” beginning to his swing.

Beckham has only walked 12 times in 100 Abs this year. He isnt a hacker but he goes up there swinging. For example: against Miss State. He swings at the first pitch and fouls it off, then lays off two good pitches to work the count 2-1. Then swings at a good slider away that he cant do much with (fouls it off). So, instead of being 3-1 and knowing he is gonna get a FB, he is now 2-2.

While he is a free swinger, he has also only struck out 9 times this year. So, as he improves his appraoch, and shows a willingness to use all fields, he could hit .290 and drive in 20-25 HRs.

He is a little pull happy right now, he is going to have to accept some singles the other way.

Defense:

Defensively, the word is he can stay at SS. He wouldn’t be much better than average however. He moves laterally pretty well and has a solid arm, but he dosent jump out at you. I wonder how much his arm will play at SS down the road though.
Projection:

Comparisons:

How about a less defensivley gifted Khalil Green?? I say Green’s offense with Michael Youngs defense. I think this is very fair in that both those players were good college ball players. Green hit for tons of power at Clemson and just hit 27 HRs playing at Petco…I am not saying Beckham will do that, but physically they are very similar as well.

His defense is similar to Young is that he is capable, but might lose a step and need to move to 2B later in his career.

Draft:

Jonathan Mayo over at MiLB Draft reported a rumor that the Pirates might be willing to take him 2nd. In other news, the Pirates are not aware that there is a state called Tennessee and there is a good baseball player down there that could change their franchise.

With that said, Beckham is tough to project because alot of his value lies with if a team thinks he can stay at SS. If a team takes him top 10 I would imagine they are pretty confident he can stick there.

If it just me or does me make too much sense for the Giants at 5? (please refrain from citing Emanuel Burriss as a reason to not draft Beckham). Beckham has more HRs in 1 game this year than Burriss does in 3 seasons. Really, no team in the top 10 is in great shape at SS (assuming the Marlins trade HRAM). Assuming Crow or Alvarez do not drop, I think Beckham will be grabbed by the Giants.

Top Prospect – Brett Wallace

Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
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Brett Wallace can hit – fastballs, curveballs, changeups, oranges, grapefruit, pinatas…you get the idea.
So, the obvious question is: why don’t most of the projection lists have him as a top 10 talent? I wondered the same thing – more specifically, why is there a feeling that Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso are better 1B prospects.

Here are the findings:

• Some do view him as a top 10 talent: Keith Law says this: “for me, Wallace is a top 10 talent. Whether the teams drafting there see him as such is another question, but I wouldn’t hesitate to take him very high. He’s going to hit.”
• Law gives this report: perhaps the best pure hitter in this year’s draft. Wallace, a left-handed hitter, brings a great swing, a good eye and above-average power to the table. He keeps his weight back and whips the bat through the zone, squaring up balls everywhere in the zone, showing only a weakness for the high pitch. He shows plus raw power in BP, though in the game he’s more apt to drive balls middle-out to the left-center gap.
• Something I feel Law leaves out here is the tremendous balance Wallace has in his swing…he uses those tree trunk legs as a great base to his swing.
• There is another knock on Wallace about his body. While I have not seen him in unerwear or modeling jeans, he is definatley not fat. His lower body is extremley muscular.
• There is a problem with his height: he is already 240 pounds at 6′1. That is fine, however, he has nowhere to go but out, which would decrease flexibility. So, he does not have alot of room to increase muscle…so that hurts his projection compared to Smoak and Hosmer.
• I asked Jim Callis this question in his EPSN chat:

Jonathan (GA): Jim, I have read/heard that Brett Wallace does not have the power potential that Smoak does…from the USA games and his collehe numbers, how are questions about his power justified? Is it becuase his body is essentially maxed out?

Jim Callis: Wallace is having a great year, batting .448 with seven homers in 18 games. But it’s not all about the numbers, especially in college baseball, where the competition varies and they’re using metal bats. Scouts believe Wallace has more of a line-drive swing than a true power stroke, and if he plays first base (like they expect he will), that’s somewhat of an issue. That said, it’s not like scouts don’t like Wallace a lot. At worst, I think he’s a sandwich-round pick in June, and that’s at worst.

• The consenus seems to be that Wallace is more of a linedrive hitter who will hit for average..from the video I have seen, I would agree. However, his bat speed is above average, so it is not as if he cannot hit HR, it is more that he would need to add loft to his swing.

I am with Callis, he isn’t going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit over for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrasment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions…knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.
However, call me crazy, but the Rockies may be in play here with the 25th pick. If not, he will be gone early in the supp. round.

Video here:
He ripped the Netherlands on July 28th – hits a TANK at the 2:28 mark.
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace

Reese Havens

Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina
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Havens, a Charleston SC product has gotten off to a blistering start for USC this season: .379 with 4 bombs and 24 RBI out of the leadoff spot for the Gamecocks through 15 games.

Great start? Yes. Surprising? No.

Background:
Havens was ranked 6th on Baseball America’s top 50 freshman list. Then dropped to 20th on the top 50 sophomore list.

Out of high school, the Red Sox were ready to draft him as their first round pick, and reportedly offered him over $1.25 million and he declined. The Rockies took him in the 29th round and offered him over $1 million and he declined.

Great article on him and good friend Justin Smoak here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/050623smoakhavens.html

Havens subsequently hit .259 with 4 homers his Freshman year and followed that up with .274 and 5 HR his Sophomore year (yeah yeah should have taken the $$$)


Howeva (in a Steven A. Smith voice) Havens is now building off his terrific finish in the Cape Cod league in 2007 where he worked with former UNC Head Coach Mike Roberts. With USC Head Coach Ray Tanner’s permission, Roberts lowered Haven’s hands among other things – Havens hit .314 over the final two months. Roberts said he never had seen someone improve so much in such a short time in all his 30 years.

So here we are: a good 2007 Cape Cod showing and blistering the ball to start off 2008.
Jim Callis had this to say:

	Joe from Jersey asks: Where do you expect Reese Havens to go in the draft? He has had two sub-par seasons at South Carolina, but has played pretty well in his two summers in the Cape League (especially this past summer). Also, do you expect him to have a monster 2008 for the GameCocks?
	Jim Callis: Funny you bring him up. There are a lot of Reese Havens arguments around, both in the BA offices and among teams. Basically, those who have seen him in the spring (area scouts, my BA brethren) have been less than impressed. Those who saw him make adjustments in the Cape last summer (mostly scouting directors and crosscheckers, whom I talked to while doing our Cape Top 30) are more impressed. The biggest thing working against him is that he can’t play shortstop at the next level. I see him going in the second or third round as a third baseman. Someone may try to make him a catcher.

So, is Havens playing his way into the first round? No

If he hits .350 this year, and shows power – say 10 HR, I would not be surprised if he goes late supp. round/2nd round as a offense oriented second baseman.

If a team really thinks he can catch (he has not caught before that I know of) that would increase his value.

Right now, I am saying he slows down, but still has a great year and helps USC get to Omaha – I’ll say the Red Sox redraft him with the 11th pick in the compensation round.

Under Rated Prospect – Lance Lynn (updated March 15)

Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss
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Say it with me in a Donald Trump impression – “he’s huuuuuge”
To the tune of 6′5 – 260 as listed on the Ole Miss web stite. I don’t know that he is 6′5, but 260 does not surprise me.

I say Lynn is under rated based on where I see him on preseason draft lists:
Baseball America does not even project him going in the first round.
Mymlbdraft.com does not project him going in the first round.
MLBdraftsite.com has him going 44th.

You get the idea.
So, am I crazy for saying he will be a top 15 pick? I do not think so, and here is why:
He has two plus pitches: a FB 92-94 with plus down curve that is a true strike out pitch.
He commands his FB well. He controls his curve ball well, but his command is iffy. To me, it is more of a swing and miss out pitch than a pitch he can throw for a strike.
Here is the game I have seen on which I am basing my opinion:
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
He pitched the July 8 game v. Japan

My impressions:

• He got alot of swing and misses with his FB against a team that is known for making contact. This indicates to me that he has good late movement on the pitch. His FB is “heavy” meaning is has a nice sinking action. He does not throw a sinker by any means.
• His curve ball is a true, major league strike out pitch. He does need to be able to throw it for strike though, which he did not do a great job of in this outing. He will not be able to rely on pros swinging at that pitch in the dirt consistently.
• He has very sound mechanics for his size. He does tend to plant hard and torque on his left leg, which spins him towards first base. Usually this indicates that he might fly open, lose velocity, and leave pitches up. However, I did not see this in this particular outing.
• He commands his fastball better than I thought he might. He worked it to both sides of the plate, and kept it low in the zone.
• Did not rely and overuse curveball, which impressed me. He seemed content to just throw strikes with the FB and get ahead.
• He is lacking a 3rd pitch. He bounced a changeup and that is the only time I saw him throw it. It drives me crazy that every SP that does not have 3 above average pitches rumored to be a relief pitcher. Could he be a closer? Yes, I can see that. But I can also see him being a durable inning eater and a #3 SP on a very good team:

Comparisons:
He reminds me of a cross between Aaron Harang and Sidney Ponson (don’t worry, more towards the Aaron Harang side).
I am looking forward to seeing him pitch on TV and possibly in the College World Series this year.

He has gotten off to an outstanding start this year, 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA with a 5:1 K to walk ratio.
However, the wins have been v. Minnesota, Indiana State, and TCU. So, it will be interesting to see how he fares in SEC play.

Lynn dominated rival Miss. State March 14 to improve to 4-0. Striking out 7 in 6 innings while giving up 4 hits and 0 runs.

In 25 innings with team USA – he had 26 Ks and a .136 BAA to go with a 1.80 ERA

Like I said, I think Lynn will work his way into the top 15 – I would not be suprised to see the Rangers, A’s, Cardinals, or Brewers grab him.

Top Prospect – Aaron Hicks

Aaron Hicks, OF/SP, Long Beach Cali
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The only real 5 tool OF talent in the draft (Galloway has not hit for avg. or power really – Dennis Raben does not have the speed, and Jonathan Danks has not hit for power). Hicks is as safe as any high school pick can get – if he doesn’t hit for power, he still can be a speedy CF running a 6.06 / 60. If hitting doesn’t work out, then he can be moved to the mound where he can potentially close with a 94-96 FB and a plus breaking ball. PS. he is a switch hitter.

He also plays for a very good team – his high school team is cirrently ranked #1 by Baseball America and he has impressed in the show cases he has played in.

I think he is the one high schooler other than Beckham who can sneak in the top 5 because of the lack of top OF in this draft. SF could go crazy and grab him if they aren’t wild about Smoak or Matusz – although I doubt that will happen.

I think the more likely destination for him will ultimately be the White Sox. Kenny Williams has said he wants more athleticism – and Hicks fits the bill.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=hicks

Top Prospect – Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Plantation FLA
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Hosmer has legit power – no doubt. He has a tremendous load (not hitch) where he lowers his hands allowing his a lighting quick bat a short path to the ball.

• I have heard Hosmer has a substantial “hitch”. This is not correct, he has a load – which is different. Almost all power hitters have a load – Chipper Jones with a very obvious ones. A hitch occurs DURING the swing – not before. Cecil Fielder had a hitch. Hosmer lowering his hands is not a bad thing – although I think he will have to make an adjustment on good fastballs in.

MiLB.com scouting report has him with “average power right now”. Let me assure you, there is nothing average about that power. At 6′4 210 he has plus power to all fields as you can see from the youtube video.

David Rawnsley, a cross checker is blown away by Hosmer – calling him one of the best high shcool bats he has seen in 20 years – article here http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2007/columnists/davidrawnsley/weeklycolumn/hosmer_special_hitter.aspx

However to be drafted as a 1B out of high school, there has to be no doubt you can hit – and to me, Hosmer has not hit well enough in show cases (Aflac and Team USA) to justify being ranked higher than Skipworth and Hicks. Furthermore, his high school competition has not been outstanding. He did play in a Lagrange, GA tournament dropping a bomb off fellow first round talent Ethan Martin – Martin also struck him out earlier in the game.

Hosmer does have as high of an upside as anyone in the draft – and he will need to come close to reaching it to justify a top 10 pick.
With polished 1B Smoak and Alonso in the draft, and Boras as his adviser, I would be surprised to see him go in the top 10.

He has been compared to Casey Kotchman and Jason Giambi.

I see Hosmer dropping in the draft as teams have other solid 1B options for less money available this year. If Boras tries to get him a major league contract, I do not think anyone will sign him.
I think if he will sign for between 2-3 million, the National, Rangers, and Astros will all be in play.

He has committed to Arizona State.

Top Prospect – Kyle Skipworth

Kyle Skipworth, C, Riverside California
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I think Skipworth is a better HS position prospect than Aaron Hicks and Eric Hosmer due to the fact that he is a Catcher with plus power.
As with every catcher the question is – can he stick at Catcher?
Skipworth impressed Baseball America’s Matt Blood and other scouts with his catching ability in early March.
Skipworth was clocked this year with a 1.91 release time to second base, which caused one scout to say “I wish I had that on video”. He has as good of a chance to stay at catcher as any high school catcher (much better than Hank Conger).
Skipworth is big – 6′3 190 – with a level swing that reminds me on John Olerude. However, his power is obvious as he has no trouble lofting the ball as seen in his two videos…one video shows him pulling a massive bomb, and the other hitting an oppo bomb

Comparisons:
Cacthers that can hit is a short list and any that do are in their own company. Looking at the video, I think Skipworth could have a John Olerude type career with a little more power at 1b. I don’t know that he is athletic enough to potentially move to the OF.

If teams think he can stay at Catcher, there is no way he lasts more than 10 picks. He could be THE elite hitting catcher if he is able to stick.

Top Prospect – Aaron Crow (Updated March 15)

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
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Opened eyes hitting 98 MPH in the Cap Cod League as he was named the player of the year. ERA at the Cape – 0.67

He has gotten off to a quick start in 2008, striking out 10 v. Californi, striking out 7 in 5 innings v. UCONN, and easily dismantling Indiana State giving up 2 hits over 7 innings while striking out 9.

March 14, Crow dominated Toledo, throwing a complete game shutout, striking out 15 while allowing 7 hits and no BBs.

Stuff wise – he has a devastating FB/Slider combo. His FB is mid 90s with good life and his slider gets up to 87 and can be unhittable. He also shows a promising changeup. While it is not a plus pitch like the other two, he can show it, and it could develop in a third plus pitch. There is no worry that he will only be a “two pitch” pitcher.

• Crow has a tremendous push off – and his shoulders are very parrellel to the ground as he begins his release. Left arm is pointed directly at target.

• He tends to slump his shoulders and upper body during his push off, which could lead to unbalance and some inconsistency.

• His motion has substantial effort to it

Comparison:
Well, there are plenty of mid 90’s RHP out there with good sliders. I dare say a toned down Mark Prior? His FB isn’t quit as explosive as Priors, and his slider dosen’t have quit the same shape and sharp break.

I think he makes sense for the Royals at #3. They have plenty of depth at 3B and 1B – so Smoak and Alvarez do not make a lot of sense. Unless Skipworth and Hicks really play well, I do not see them taking a hitter because I think the Rays will take Beckham. If the Royals do not grab him, I think the Orioles will jump all over him.

Jim Callis mentioned in a chat that he thinks Crow will be the first player to the mjaors from this draft – and think the Rays could pop him #1.

Jonathan (GA): RE: Orioles #1 Is that because Crow will be gone? I would put a friendly wager that Crow will be the first pitcher taken – I like his 2 plus pitches more than Matuszs two best pitches. And Crow is more dominating

Jim Callis: (2:56 PM ET ) Yes. Right now, my best guess is that Crow would go No. 1 to the Rays.