This is a tough list because of the wealth of 1B. You cannot go just by stats on a list like this, because almost every other position is harder to find that 1B. You will find that most 1B in the majors were not drafted as 1B, most of them are moved to 1B because of the inability to play another position. So, most teams do not want to have to lock in a player at 1B because when another player has to move to 1B, it creates a log jam.
Also, this not necessarily the order they will get draft in. Maybe a team just wants to take the player that will give them the best offensive production.
I believe this list factors in projection, position, as well current ability.
1) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: The fact that Beckham can stay at SS puts him at the top of the list. There are about 2 legit players who can play SS that will be drafted in the first three rounds. Tim and Gordon Beckham. Combined that with the fact that he has the power to hit 20-25 HR and steal 15 bases, that is going to put him at the top of the list for alot of teams.
2) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: There he is, the premier switch hitting 1B that project to be a middle of the order bat. There have been some concerns about Smoak as he has not hot for much power this year. He gets pitched around constantly, and I think high expectations have hurt him. It seems like people though he should hit 30 HR this year. This was really a tough call between he and Posey because Smoak is not a liability at 1B, he is a potential Gold Glover.
3) Buster Posey, Catcher, Florida State: Again, playing an “up the middle position” factors in. Offensive catchers who can actually play the position well do not come along every draft. Posey could go as high as 5 to the Giants as a result.
4) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: I profiled Weeks this past weekend and the more I see of him, the more impressed I am. If teams can get over how small he is, he will go in the top 20. He is a leadoff hitter, game changing speed, switch hitter, who can play 2B.
5) Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State: Where is Yonder Alonso??!!! Listen, Wallace can flat out hit. You can say what you want about OBP, but the bottom line is teams want a 1B who can drop 3 run bombs. Also, it is not as if Wallace is a slouch when it comes to OBP. Please read his profile I did a few weeks ago. Alonso would come in here 6th. Recent reports have also shown Wallace could possibly stay at 3b, which would increase his stock significantly. Coming into the season, it was widely agreed upon he was a future 1B.
Would you be able to provide links to any reports that suggest Wallace could possibly stay at third? He has good fielding % numbers, but of course that could just mean he can field anything he can fall on and that his range may not cut it in the majors. But if anything, it could also mean he could have a strong and accurate arm.
If Wallace can truly be a passable big league third baseman, he would be a flat out no-brainer for the Giants at #5, assuming Alvarez is off the board.
sure, it was keth law..take it for what you will. i will link what he said when i find it.
also, “possibly” staying at 3B is alot different that a team being sure he will and takingh him at 5. if he can stay at 3B, he is a top 10 talent for sure i agree
Link: http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=20110
If you aren’t able to access insider info the transcript is:
Rob – Oakland, CA: I read that Brett Wallace is unlikely to stay at 3B in the pros – only a 1B or could he play LF?
Keith Law: That’s absurd. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t play a passable 3b in the pros.
Great website… you have info here I haven’t found on other sites.
This may be an unusual question, but do you think Pedro Alvarez would be able to hit well if he went straight to the majors, a la Bob Horner and John Olerud? The reason I wonder this is that no team needs a 3B more than the Giants, and perhaps an offer of a major league contract and an immediate starting job in the majors would entice Alvarez (and Boras) enough to lead them to dissuade the teams picking #1-4 from drafting him in order to ensure he drops to #5. Or maybe I am off base and this kind of negotiation doesn’t really take place behind closed doors…hmmm.
well, pedro is going to get a ML contract no matter what..so, in that scenario, for Boras to tell teams 1-4 that his asking price is 10 million, so they dont draft him, then he signs for 7 million with the giants, that is very illegal haha.
olerude was one of the best pure hitters in the game in my opinion when he played….ryan zimmerman jumped from the minors to the majors extremely quickly, but doing that with pedro (for any top 5 teams) would not do much good because you potentially impede his development when you arent going to win anytime soon anyway.
now, for arguments sake (this would never h appen), lets say Pedro DOES drop due to demands to a team like….maybe like the Astros who want to win NOW and only NOW…and they are 5 games out of first in June…maybe I could see them calling him up extremely quickly. I just dont seen any teams in the top 10 that have any chance of competing.
I guess the essence of your question is: how good would Pedro be right away. I would say he would strike out once every 3 or 4 Abs and maybe have an OPS around .750.