I was asked to write for The College Baseball Blog . I feel it is an outstanding site, and offers more to the the readers and fans that my site alone can.
The type of things I will be writing about will the exact same, however.
Saved this one for last due to the fact I think it is the hardest list. In determining the list, I considered their likely future role with a club and their current reported “stuff”
1) Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
While stats do not say it all – his are almost laughable at this point: 2.05 ERA, 3 CG, 71K in 57 Innings. Not to mention a stretch of over 40 scoreless innings. He is not exactly pitching in the Sun Belt conference either. Check out the Video Page for youtube video. Also, Saberscouting.com did a very nice breakdown of his mechanics.
2) Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
Reports are that he throws up to 75% off speed stuff and his velo has been down to 88-91. This could spell a tumble in the draft I feel. While he is polished and a LHP, I would not be suprised to see an up and comer like Tanner Scheppers pass him.
3) Tanner Scheppes, RHP, Fresno State
Interesting story. Did not pitch in high school untill the end of the year tournament because his team ran out of pitchers. He was in the high 80s and lasted 6 innings. Orioles actually drafted him in the 29th round as a result.
Full story here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/season-preview/2008/265642.html
His 1 – 2 punch of FB and slider from a projectable frame and good throwing motion will be very enticing to some teams, maybe the Reds.
4) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
Pitched well in the Cape this past summer, and has followed that up with pitching well this season. Youtube video:
SaberScouting.com had a very informative article on him as well.
5) Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia
This is where the list gets tough. Everyone’s darling from Eastern Kentucky, Christian Freidrich does not seem as good as advertised. His FB command is very average, if not a tick below, and one scout has said his famed curveball is not where Zitos and Rich Hill’s are. Not to mention he only throw 88, 89 to begin with.
Fields is making the Braves wish they had given him the money he wanted last year, because now he is making himself worth it. With Brett Hunter being injured, a team looking for a polished college reliever who can help them quickly will look to Fields.
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** Pedro Alvarez, injury or no injury is the best overall player in this draft. This list is the top 5 after him since he is on another level by himself in my mind. So, I guess this is the top 6 technically.
This is a tough list because of the wealth of 1B. You cannot go just by stats on a list like this, because almost every other position is harder to find that 1B. You will find that most 1B in the majors were not drafted as 1B, most of them are moved to 1B because of the inability to play another position. So, most teams do not want to have to lock in a player at 1B because when another player has to move to 1B, it creates a log jam.
Also, this not necessarily the order they will get draft in. Maybe a team just wants to take the player that will give them the best offensive production.
I believe this list factors in projection, position, as well current ability.
1) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: The fact that Beckham can stay at SS puts him at the top of the list. There are about 2 legit players who can play SS that will be drafted in the first three rounds. Tim and Gordon Beckham. Combined that with the fact that he has the power to hit 20-25 HR and steal 15 bases, that is going to put him at the top of the list for alot of teams.
2) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: There he is, the premier switch hitting 1B that project to be a middle of the order bat. There have been some concerns about Smoak as he has not hot for much power this year. He gets pitched around constantly, and I think high expectations have hurt him. It seems like people though he should hit 30 HR this year. This was really a tough call between he and Posey because Smoak is not a liability at 1B, he is a potential Gold Glover.
3) Buster Posey, Catcher, Florida State: Again, playing an “up the middle position” factors in. Offensive catchers who can actually play the position well do not come along every draft. Posey could go as high as 5 to the Giants as a result.
4) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: I profiled Weeks this past weekend and the more I see of him, the more impressed I am. If teams can get over how small he is, he will go in the top 20. He is a leadoff hitter, game changing speed, switch hitter, who can play 2B.
5) Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State: Where is Yonder Alonso??!!! Listen, Wallace can flat out hit. You can say what you want about OBP, but the bottom line is teams want a 1B who can drop 3 run bombs. Also, it is not as if Wallace is a slouch when it comes to OBP. Please read his profile I did a few weeks ago. Alonso would come in here 6th. Recent reports have also shown Wallace could possibly stay at 3b, which would increase his stock significantly. Coming into the season, it was widely agreed upon he was a future 1B.
Posted in Top 5's | 6 Comments »
Caught most of the two games today v. Ga Tech
Took video of all 3 guys. Here are my thoughts on each of them.
Jemile Weeks – Not very big, looks smaller in person. Game changing speed. Switch hitter who knows what he is doing at the plate. Did not get himself out once in that he did not swing at any poor pitches in good counts. Could be very solid leadoff hitter. Showed feel for bunting as well. Centers up the ball on the barrel pretty well. Do not be fooled by HRs, has some pull power when he hits left handed. Projects to be more of a double triples guy. Could put out 10 HR as a pro.
Got challenged on one play at 2B, but could not make it. Made all the routine plays. Average arm.
Comparisons:
High End – Brian Roberts
Conservative – Freddy Sanchez with less contact ability but more speed
Worst Case Scenario – Utility INF used to pinch hit and steal some bases
Yonder Alonso – Not very athletic. Does not run well or show great feet at 1B. Cannot play another position. Does not have arm for being a catcher. His approach is legit. He knows what he is doing at the plate. Great strike zone judgment. He has bad speed but his swing is just not leveraged and powerful. I can see why scouts do not know if he will hit for power. You can’t just say “well, he will develop more power”. He is going to have to change his swing and his approach to some extent. He missed a few pitches that a big time threat at 1B needs to drive. Some concerns before the season about work ethic.
Comparisons:
High End – Current Todd Helton
Conservative – 1999, 2000 version of Sean Casey
Low End – AAAA 1B
Dennis Raben – Raben may be the best college OF, but he was not impressive in this game. He does have power, plus power to all fields. However, his swing is long and his hands are in a poor position. Pitchers with good fastballs inside will get him out all day. He got jammed by an average curve ball that he weekly popped up to LF. He reportedly has a plus arm, did not get to show it off.
Comparisons:
High End – David Justice
Conservative – Pick an OF who hits 20-25 HR a year and hits .275
Low End – If he does not make adjustments he won’t make it to the majors
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Smoak played high school ball along with Matt Weiters in Goose Creek, SC – about 5 miles from where I went to college.
I have been able to follow him since his senior year of high school and have seen him play at least once every year, so I feel like I have a good idea about his progression as a player.
Background/Career:
Out of high school, Smoak was drafted in the 16th round by the A’s. He wanted $1 million to sign, and the rumor was that the A’s held firm at $950,000 (ouch Oakland).
Freshman year: Started all 66 games at first base in first season, batted .303 with 17 homers and 63 RBI as well as 18 doubles.
Cape Cod: Smoak was the Cape Cod Player of the year going INTO his sophomore season – hitting .315 with 11 HR in the Cap and earning the leagues top player honor, which is really quite impressive.
Sophomore year: Batted .315 (82-for-260) with 22 HR and 72 RBI along with 16 doubles and 64 runs scored.
Team USA: Smoak struggled with team USA going into his Junior year. Word is had some trouble with changeups, hitting .223 with 10 2B, 3 HR in 121 ABs. However, his swing looked fine and his track record at the Cape shows he is not going to have a problem with wooden bats.
Junior Year: He has fallen victim to some high expecations this year – seems like people expected him to hit 30HR or something crazy. He is getting pitched around constantly. Impressivley, he has not gotten frustrated, instead has posted a .364 BA with 11doubles and 13 HR. Furthermore, has has walked 34 times and K’d 21. He is on pace to have more walks than strikeouts in his college career.
Swing:
The first thing that jumps out at me is the loft and leverage in his swing. It is not a contact swing, it is a little long but with all sorts of power potential (as evidenced by almost half his hits going for extra bases). He has strong wrists that whip the bat through the zone.
I have seen a few times that the dips out of the plate and ia a little pull happy from the right side.
While not concerning his swing per sey, his approach and strike zone judgement are plus areas of his game. It is not easy being pitched around, and seeing off spead pitches constantly. Strike zone judgement is not something easy to teach so its good he has that ability. I have seen reports that he needs work on his pitch recognition as he swings and misses at off speed pitches a little too much.
Defense:
He is far and away better than other potential 1B – Alonso, Dykstra, and Wallace. Most scouts view Smoak as a potential gold glove 1B, which really helps his draft position over other 1B. It is easier for a scouting director to rationalize a 1B in the top 10 when you know he adds another element to your team.
Projection/Comparison:
Smoak is 6′3 and about 210 pounds, with long, lean limbs - as you can see from the youtube video (scroll down), he has plenty of room to fill out and gain another 30 pounds without becoming too big and losing flexibility.
I think that is what is so attractive about Smoak, his unbelievable power without being really close to filling out.
The obvious player comparison is Mark Teixera, because they are both very good college players in good conferences and switch hitters with good defense. However, Smoak does not really figure to hit for the type of average Teixera has hit for.
Smoak seems to me like a 4/5 hitter in a good lineup. He won’t hit well enough for average to bat third I do not think.
Career Year: Putting his best years in all cats into one year would look like this potentially:
291/375/590, 41 HR, 132 RBI.
Draft Projection:
The obvious choice was the Giants at 5 before they moved top prospect Angel Villalona to 1B this offseason. I have heard rumors (more like wishful thinking) that Smoak could play LF. He just does not run well enough in my mind. However, it would not hurt anything to at least try it. Its not like trying out LF is going to ruin his play at 1B.
I think the Marlins and the White Sox are the two teams in play here though. Marlins could go with local pick Alonso, but I cannot imagine Smoak falling past the Sox. They have two old(er) sluggers in Thome and Konerko (could probably throw Dye in there as well). The Sox are trying to win now, and Smoak would not need much more than a season in the minors. His strike zone judgement and experience against good amatuer competition could help him move faster than that.
Video:
Posted in Prospects | 1 Comment »
Well, the Miami/ GA Tech game got rained out. I am waiting to see what the weather will do today until I try to back out there.
There have been alot of rumors flying around as the draft approaches.
Jim Callis did a nice job on compiling some prospects who are moving up and down here ( I think it is free): http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=266
Also, Saber Scouting had a real nice article on some of the Boras clients here: http://saberscouting.com/2008/04/07/borasclientprice/#more-84
Rays: Tim Beckham
Rumors are that the Rays want a position player. With Alvarez’s asking price possibly astronomical, expect Beckham here. Also, the Rays need catchers so Skipworth and Posey will at least get looks.
Pirates: Pedro Alvarez
The Pirates NEED to take him. However, Jonathan Mayo over at MiLB.com heard that the Pirates could take Gordon Beckham here. While Beckham is solid, he is not a top 3 pick. Taking him would not look good.
Royals: Brian Matusz
I think Crow is better, but the asking price for him is too high for the Royals. If Tim Beckham was here I think the Royals would love him.
Orioles: Aaron Crow
Would the Orioles sign two HUGE contracts two years in a row? They need to if they are serious about this rebuilding thing.
Giants: Kyle Skipworth
What to do what do to. This is a tough pick. Tanner Schepper and Shooter Hunt would be pitchers here.
Marlins: Yonder Alonso
I am not a big fan of Alonso. However, he should be inexpensive and a local pick.
Reds: Tim Melville
This pick almost makes too much sense. Posey or Skipworth could make sense as well.
White Sox: Justin Smoak
The system needs anything and everything. Smoak’s stock has fallen due to high expectations. He is still an outstanding prospect.
Nationals: Buster Posey
The Nationals have been pitcher oriented. Having the chance to get an offensive oriented catcher is too good to pass up. Skipworth and Posey are interchangeable in that it comes down to preference and whether Skipworth can stay at catcher. They would take Skipworth too I think. Beckham is a possibility as well.
Astros: Gordon Beckham
This is where he projects to go, and won’t be a tough sign. Perfect for the Astros
Rangers: Tanner Scheppers
If Hosmer’s bonus demands are not ridiculous, we could see him here.
Athletics: Shooter Hunt
Frontline college starter makes sense
Cardinals: Aaron Hicks
They could go really any direction here. I think they would love Shceppers or Hunt. Chrisitan Freidhich is a possibility but there are some major questions about his control, velo, and how good is CB actually is.
Twins: Dennis Raben
Honestly, who knows what the Twins will do? I can just tell you it will not cost a lot of money.
Dodgers: Alex Meyer
Another high school pitcher? Why not. Go with what works for you.
Brewers: Josh Fields
I am trying to predict a surprise here. Really, the best players still there aren’t typical Brewers guys. Fields could help the Brewers pen down the stretch as well.
Blue Jays: Ethan Martin
Blue Jays have shown they will take high school players. Martin has shot up the draft boards and is one of the hardest throwers in the draft
Mets: Eric Hosmer
Assuming they will spend money on the best talent, it comes down to Hosmer and Cole. I think Cole’s mechanics and makeup will scare some teams off.
Cubs: Jemile Weeks
Seems very similar to Tony Thomas, 2nd round pick last year.
Seattle Mariners: Brett Hunter
Assuming he is healthy. They like to move guys quick, and he is a quick mover. Potential closer.
Tigers: Gerrit Cole
Kind of the obvious choice here in that they figure to swipe up the best talent that falls.
Mets: Lance Lynn
I think the Mets will try to go hitter/pitcher with their first two picks. While they do have the money, I do not think they will spend $8 million on the first round.
Padres: Christian Freidrich
Essentially, I go down the list and look for a signable college player for the Padres. I honestly think he will fall this far.
Phillies: Brett DeVall
I cannot imagine them NOT taking a pitcher.
Rockies: Brett Wallace
Pick makes sense for them. Watch the Brewers take him and try to make him into a catcher. Only kidding. If teams think he can play 3B, he will go way before this – maybe to the Brewers actually.
Diamondbacks: Kyle Lobstein
Polished lefty from Flagstaff
Twins: Connor Gillespie
Just a guess. Trying to predict a surprise.
Yankees: Sonny Gray
Really just a guess. In reality, the Yankees will take whoever drops more than likely.
Indians: Tyson Ross
Polished college pitcher. Enough said for the Indians.
Red Sox: Reese Havens
Red Sox wanted him out of high school, offered him over slot money. His performance this year warrants a top 40 pick so this is not a stretch.
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It seems to me that the high school pitching crop is taking a little bit of a hit with 2 months to go before the draft. There are no Porcellos, Kershaws, or Parkers in this draft.
I would also like to point out that Peter Gammons wrote an article showing that less than 4% of high school LHP drafted make it to the Pros.
Tim Melville – RHP- Tall, projectable RHP with low 90s FB and workable knuckcurve.
Gerrit Cole -RHP- Throws legit heat, mid to upper 90’s. Major questions on signablity and makeup.
Alex Meyer – RHP – 6′7 – came out of nowhere last year and has played well in showcases throwing his mid 90s heat. Baseball America convered The perfect Game Show Case and had him ranked ahead of Cole. Do not be suprised if he is taken before Cole in the draft.
Brett DeVall - LHP – DeVall is actually the second best high school LHP according to BA (behind Kyle Lobstein). However, I prefer Devall in that he is 6′5 and lanky with very solid mecnanics. Throws low 90s and has a solid slider/slurve and shows a feel for a change up. BA also had Gray listed ahead of Devall.
Sonny Gray- RHP – Concerns will be there about his size. He is about 5′10 or 5′11. He does have a plus FB and a power CB, however, lets remeber Tim Lincecum is the exception to the rule.
Posted in Top 5's | 2 Comments »
Size:
Cole is 6’3 about 190 pounds. Melville is 6’5 200 pounds. Both are tall, lean pitchers with room to fill out and potentially add some velocity.
Mechanics:
Melville has very good mechanics for anyone, let alone someone who is 6’5. He stays over the rubber well, keeps him balance, and finishes in good position. His delivery is smooth. There is a reason why scouts love his projection.
Cole’s mechanics are not as good as Melville’s. His shoulders are sloped over his feet, which usually leads to inconsistency and balance problems. His arm action is very long and somewhat slings the ball from a ¾ arm angle.
Stuff:
Cole has the edge in velocity. “He may have the best FB in the draft” as one executive told Baseball America. He has a legit mid 90’s FB that sits 93,94 and has touched 98. Melville has good velo, 92, 93. But, he has the size and mechanics to envision more on the way.
Coles slider is pretty solid, Melville throws a knuckle curve. Both changeups are nothing to write home about.
Makeup:
There have been concerns over Cole’s makeup. Not to mention Boras is his adviser.
Opinion:
I think Melville’s size, projecability, and Cole’s signablity concerns make Melville a better pick. Just based on pure stuff, Cole has the edge right now, but at a high cost.
Cole will drop in the draft, while Melville will most likely be a top 10 pick.
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The high school position prospects crop has gold in there at the top, but after the top 5 there is not much. There will probably be 5 high school position players taken in the 1st round. Most teams will be grabbing the established college pitchers and position players if I had to guess.
The first thing you will notice about the list is the abscence of Harold Martinez. He has taken a huge dive in the eyes of scouts. Maybe out of the 1st and supp rounds. He has looked terrible at the plate early on. With that said, Isaac Galloway has some tools but is not anymore proven.
1) Tim Beckham
Tim Beckham is one of the only legit 5 tool players in the draft. His power will need to develop as it is lagging behind his other tools. Most importantly, there is no doubt he can stay at SS.
2) Aaron Hicks
Hicks is the other legit 5 tool player in the draft. I think his tools are actually better than Beckham’s. Obviously the fact that Beckham plays and can stay at SS gives him the edge. Like I said in the “Top Prospect” on Hicks, he is an extremley speedy CF with a great arm at least. His frame is extremley projectable and if he adds power and can hit consistently he is very comparable to Cameron Maybin.
PLUS, he is a potential setup/closer in the bull pen. So a team could let him hit for 3 years, if that does not work out, move him to the bull pen with is mid 90’s FB and power CB. He is as safe as of pick as a high school player can be.
3)Eric Hosmer
Hicks over Hosmer? This is just a personal preference. Based on how good they are right now, Hosmer is probably better and more accomplished. However, I am not wild about high school 1B, plus when you factor in cost, Hicks is just a better prospect to me. In order for Hosmer to be worth his cost, he has to hit 30 HR in the big leagues. Even if he turns out to be Mike Jacobs, that is not worth it. I would rather take a chance on a non 1B.
4) Kyle Skipworth
I really like Skipworth, and I think he is a top 10 pick. As I said in his Top Prospect, he has the size comparable to Joe Mauer and the sweet swing of John Olerude, but with more power. If it was a given he could stay at catcher, he would be a top 5 pick. However, he has calmed some of those concerns this Spring. He can hit enough to even play 1B down the road if need be.
4) Isaac Galloway
This is where the list drops off for me. He profiles as a corner OF and tops out at a 20/20 ceiling. His arm is good, but not good enough speed for CF. The word is that he has more now skills but not as much projection as Hicks.
Posted in Top 5's | 6 Comments »
Crow or Matusz, Matusz or Crow? That seems to be the question. Fortunately for comparison sake, the only similarity they really share is they are both studs.
I am not going to get into college numbers when comparing them, because most college numbers are useless. The fact that Matusz struck out 16 against San Fransisco really does no good in his future projection. Something I will bring up is the K/BB ratio because I feel it is important no matter what division or league a pitcher is in that they throw strikes and have dominating stuff; Matusz with a 71:15 ratio and Crow with a 67:11. But, Crow plays against better competition blah blah blah that it why I do not want to get into comparing college stats. They are both dominating the college ranks, enough said.
So here is what we got – Crow is a dominating RHP with two plus pitches (FB and Slider) while Matusz has 3 potential plus pitches. You might have seen that Matusz has 3 plus pitches already. I beg to differ. His FB sitting at 90-91 is not a plus pitch. There are some concerns with his velocity. If teams think Matusz sits at 90-91 as a pro, his draft stock will take a hit. Because he goes from possibly an Eric Bedard (92-94 MPH FB) to a young Jamie Moyer (not bad, but not an ace). There are no questions about Crows velo and his secondary pitches – they are both plus. Maybe the slider plus plus.
However, comparing deliveries, Matusz has the advantage a good bit on Crow. Crow SHOULD throw that hard with his effort delivery. It is not herky jerk per se, but its also not smooth. Matusz’s delivery actually reminds me of Jamie Moyers, nice and smooth – almost melancholy. Matusz is also 6’5. So, it will cause some teams to wonder if he will not actually gain velocity. Matusz doesn’t use a lot of arm speed – he also all legs and leverage (which is a good thing).
Projctablity:
I have mention before that I feel Crow’s best two pitches are better than Matusz’s best two. However, Matusz’s third pitch is better than Crow’s third pitch. Simply put, I think Crow is more dominating but Matusz is a safer bet because he already has 3 workable pitches.
Here is how I view them – Crow has a higher ceiling in that if he develops a change up or a 3rd pitch we could be talking about his stuff being Prior-esque. Matusz on the other hand is the safest bet in the draft. He is going to be a major league pitcher baring an injury. Also, I think he floor is higher than most players. At the very least he is an innings eater 4th starter for a long time.
Lastly, Crow is advised by Boras. Matusz is not. It is almost a given that Boras will demand a ML deal for Crow (bringing up the Prior comparison). So, if a team (the Rays) feels that Crow is the best talent in the draft, is he better by 3 or 4 million than Matusz and Beckham? Probably not.
Furthermore, Matusz is a LHP, so that is a plus. The more I think about it, the more I think Matusz will be the first pitcher taken.
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